Will Texas Hold the ONLY Caution-Free Race This Year?

This year’s race at the Circuit of the Americas was set to be a good show, and it did not disappoint! Before we jump into my race notes, let’s look at some track notes and a recap of qualifying. I’m still playing around with formatting, so you’ll see some structure changes from last week. Additionally, I wanted to let y’all know I’ve been picked up by Google News in the Motorsport category. This is a good sign that my writing is doing well, and I’ll be continuing to put time and energy into improving my articles for all of you – my audience! Thanks for the support so far! 

Leading into turn one we saw plenty of tire lockups. Turn 1 is an uphill elevation gain of 134 feet (from the start line to the T1 apex). Under that hill, there’s a tunnel leading into the infield. Because of the temperature difference and the rate of track cooling under the asphalt where the tunnel is, grooved bumps form on the track surface. These bumps catch tires, and make them lock up if the driver is breaking too hard. Drivers who have figured this out will know they have to modulate the brake pedal with a very specific amount of firmness when going over this patch, in order to not lock up their tires. Because the track is so big, qualifying took place in groups of 15. They were let out onto the track in timed intervals so they wouldn’t be in each other’s way. Gibbs set a new track record in qualifying with a time of 2.09.197, and held it for less than 20 seconds when Reddick retook the record with a time of 2.09.135. When Group B qualified, Byron snagged the track record from Reddick with a time of 2.09.116. On a quick unrelated side note, the Hennessy Venom F5 just set the COTA record for the Fastest Production Vehicle with a time of 2:10.90. That should give you some idea of how well the NASCAR drivers are doing at running this track in their NextGen Stock Cars. 

Qualifying saw Toyota domination as 4 of the Top 5 fastest vehicles in Group A were Toyotas, as well as 2 of the Top 5 in Group B. The other 1 in Group A, and 3 in Group B, were all Chevys – which means there were no Fords in the Top 10. We’ll talk more about that later in the article. The fast 5 from both groups then went up against each other, and gave us the new Top 5: Byron set the pole in his Chevy, followed by the Toyotas of Gibbs, Reddick, and Bell, and LaJoie scored the fifth spot in his Chevy.
As a part of my shifting article structures, we’re going to look at my top paint schemes first, and then jump straight into the race notes. Austin Dillon’s car had the best paint game in my opinion. That bright green reminds me of anything glow-in-the-dark from when I was a kid. If anyone from the marketing department is reading this, we need a glow-in-the-dark car on the track! Chastain comes in second with the bright blue of Worldwide Express. That color popped off the screen every time they showed it – which was often! Last but not least was the beautiful black & gold 50th anniversary Mobile 1 scheme, appropriately placed on the number 50 car of Kamui Kobayashi.

The stages for this race were set at 15, 15, 38. I know that sounds really low, but keep in mind this is only a 68 lap race because the course is over 3 miles in length. The average lap time is 2:12, and the cars max out at 175 mph. Both the fuel window and the tire window are 25 laps each. This race was paced by a 2025 Toyota Camry, and the weather was 73 and cloudy. Right off the bat we had contact on Lap 1 between Truex Jr, Wallace, and LaJoie which brought Wallace and Truex into the pits on the tail end of that lap. This track is big enough that drivers can pit under green without the risk of going a lap down. On Lap 2, Burton spun with no caution. In fact, the entire race was caution-free with the exception of the stage brakes. This is something I think NASCAR needs to strive for, as it makes for much better racing. A number of cars pit on Lap 12, but the majority of the cars pit on Lap 13, with the race leaders pitting on Lap 14. Although Gibbs locked up coming out of the pits, he didn’t lose any positions. Bell, Suarez, McDowell, Cindric, and Dillon stayed out of pits for position, and finished Stage 1 in that order. This is where fans started to pick up on the strategies their favorite teams were exploring. 

I was caught off-guard at Lap 15 when the caution came out for the stage break. NASCAR didn’t use stage brakes over the past few years at COTA, instead opting to keep the race green and just count the points as the cars came past the finish line. I’m not sure when I missed the memo of them changing that, but I wish they would’ve kept it how they had it – green all the way. A number of cars pit under the stage caution, but Bell didn’t. This was clearly a bold strategy to stay in first – and it worked for the majority of the rest of the race. On Lap 19, Byron passed Bell with fresh tires, and Reddick followed him past Bell on Lap 20. Meanwhile Wallace got bumped by Keselowski and spun. Additionally, Larson got spun while trying to pass Bell on Lap 20. Bell pit on Lap 24 for fresh tires and came out of the pits in p19. I think their strategy was to stay out long enough to not have to stop again before Stage 3. 

On Lap 26 Kobayashi and Stenhouse collided, with no caution. SVG also got a penalty for speeding on pit road. On Lap 27, Reddick pit from 2nd place to get a rear adjustment. A third of the field pit with him. On Lap 29, the majority of the leaders came into the pits giving us a Stage 2 top 5 finish of Hamlin, Blaney, Truex Jr, Gilliland, and Preece. Don’t be deceived by Gilliland and Preece finishing Top 5 here, it was one of only a couple times all day there were Fords in the Top 5. On Lap 30 we got the stage-end caution. McDowell pit over the stage break as he had unknown issues. About half the cars, including most of the leaders, pit over the stage break as well. This gave us a restart of Byron, Chastain, Gibbs, Reddick, and Bowman.

Preece spun immediately following the restart on Lap 34, but otherwise we got under green without incident. By Lap 36, Chastain was holding the lead over Gibbs and Byron, but Gibbs was really turning up the heat on him. Meanwhile Reddick was losing spots one after another all the way back to 7th place. It’s worth noting that as Buescher was the only Ford in Top 10 for the majority of the rest of the race. Elliot who was in p5, got a penalty for leaving the track in the Esses. He wasn’t happy with his call, and it led to much discussion by many different race fans and commentators post-race. Blaney spun on Lap 40 while further up in the field Reddick passed Busch. Bell hooked Busch and spun him less than a minute later. This led to a post-race confrontation between the two drivers.

Byron started battling Chastain for the lead on Lap 42, and finally passed him on Lap 44 . Keselowski spun on this same lap, and near the end of the lap race leaders Byron and Chastain went in for their last pit. Gibbs pit on Lap 45 and Reddick pit on Lap 46 while Bell stayed out to take the lead again. Bell then pit on Lap 47, giving Truex Jr the lead briefly. Fox had ad issues on Lap 50 with ads cutting in and out of the race broadcast, and it led to the only time I’ve ever seen a major network completely cut a broadcast to fix the issue.
Once back to the race broadcast, we saw Reddick battle with, and overtake Chastain and Gilliland to gain 2 spots up to p6. Truex pit on Lap 51 giving the lead back to Byron. Berry got into Kobayashi and spun him on Lap 54, and Chase Elliott spun on Lap 55. Bell passed Reddick on Lap 56 as he continued up the field, and Keselowski spun again on Lap 60. Meanwhile, Gibbs was battling Bowman before overtaking him for p2. Gragson spun and stalled on track in front of the leaders on Lap 64 – the final lap of the race, but thankfully NASCAR kept the race green and the spotters were able to alert the race leaders of the situation. There was no contact or caution. Byron won, followed by Bell, Gibbs, Bowman, and Reddick. This is Byron’s second win in the season, giving him an early season lead. He had a great race and his team executed great stops and strategy. My congratulations to him, and Hendrick Motorsports. Let’s take a look at how the rest of my picks did.

Usually this is where we wrap up, but I’ve got one more thing I need to address: I’m changing my predictions and picks. We’ve now seen every type of track – short track, intermediate, speedway, superspeedway, and road course. Coming into this season, I knew Chevy would have the edge having run the same car over the past few years. They’ve had time to figure it out, and to optimize the vehicle for running at every type of track. Toyota and Ford on the other hand, have a brand new car this year and have to figure out how to overcome all the challenges at all the different types of tracks. To be fair, we’re still early in the season and I didn’t expect to be making a prediction shift this early. But with that said, it’s clear that Toyota has figured out their car much quicker than anticipated. Ford on the other hand, is figuring out their new car much slower. I had a lot of confidence in Ford coming into this year as I think the Dark Horse platform is a fantastic platform for multiple motorsports. But even still, I’m shifting my prediction to say that Toyota will win the most races this year. This may change again further down the road if Ford can figure themselves out, and let their teams know how to best optimize the vehicle for running different races. But as for right now, I’m predicting the year will end with Toyota in first, Chevy in second, and Ford in third.

Along with that shift, I’m replacing Preece with Buescher. This isn’t actually anything against Preece himself, but rather a combination of him being in a Ford that hasn’t gotten figured out yet, and being on a team that’s gotten heavy penalties this year. The combination of those two factors have been enough to keep him out of the top running this year. Buescher, although he still has to deal with the same Ford, has a better team backing him so far this year. As for my team picks, I’m going to keep them the same for now. I have been eyeing Joe Gibbs racing though, they must have something in the water over there – they’ve been doing great. I’ll also take a second to mention that I’ve been surprised by the progress of Gibbs, Suarez, Gilliland, and Bell. They’ve really put down some good laps this year, and I’ve added them to my list of drivers to watch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a first place finish out of all of them by the end of this season. 

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